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České Budějovice II vs Slavia Praha II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slavia Praha II
Slavia Praha II
11/4/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 14SCM Složiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

České Budějovice II35%
×Draw22%
Slavia Praha II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice II
1.64
Slavia Praha II
1.82

Slavia Praha II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 40 away

creates per match

České Budějovice II
1.75
Slavia Praha II
2.13

allows per match

České Budějovice II
1.52
Slavia Praha II
1.52

finishing

České Budějovice II+0.00on par
Slavia Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice II ↓

Slavia Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

České Budějovice II or draw
58%
České Budějovice II or Slavia Praha II
78%
Draw or Slavia Praha II
65%

Winning margin

České Budějovice II wins by 2+
17%
Slavia Praha II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

České Budějovice II 1+ goals
81%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
49%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
23%
Slavia Praha II 1+ goals
84%
Slavia Praha II 2+ goals
54%
Slavia Praha II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
45%
Slavia Praha II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.52 · 61 matches

Slavia Praha II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice II attack 1.75 + Slavia Praha II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Slavia Praha II attack 2.13 + České Budějovice II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

České Budějovice II scores more
35%
level
22%
Slavia Praha II scores more
42%

Slavia Praha II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slavia Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: České Budějovice II vs Slavia Praha II

České Budějovice II and Slavia Praha II drew 0-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at SCM Složiště in České Budějovice.