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Slavia Mozyr vs Shakhter Soligorsk — Premier League 2018

Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
6/24/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stadyen Junatsva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Slavia Mozyr29%
×Draw27%
Shakhter Soligorsk43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Mozyr
1.07
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.36

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 27% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 104 away

creates per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.27
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.52

allows per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.21
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88

finishing

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par
Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Mozyr ↓

Shakhter Soligorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Slavia Mozyr or draw
57%
Slavia Mozyr or Shakhter Soligorsk
73%
Draw or Shakhter Soligorsk
71%

Winning margin

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
11%
Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
66%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
29%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
9%
Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
74%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
39%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
40%
Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Mozyr at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Shakhter Soligorsk away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.27 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.52 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slavia Mozyr scores more
29%
level
27%
Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
43%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Slavia Mozyr 3–1 Shakhter Soligorsk

Slavia Mozyr beat Shakhter Soligorsk 3-1 in Premier League on June 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Junatsva in Mozyr.