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Shakhter Soligorsk vs Slavia Mozyr — Premier League 2018

Shakhter Soligorsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
11/10/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Stadyen Budaŭnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Shakhter Soligorsk51%
×Draw25%
Slavia Mozyr24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.65
Slavia Mozyr
1.05

Shakhter Soligorsk creates 57% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 112 away

creates per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
1.81
Slavia Mozyr
1.28

allows per match

Shakhter Soligorsk
0.82
Slavia Mozyr
1.49

finishing

Shakhter Soligorsk+0.00on par
Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shakhter Soligorsk ↓

Slavia Mozyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shakhter Soligorsk or draw
76%
Shakhter Soligorsk or Slavia Mozyr
75%
Draw or Slavia Mozyr
49%

Winning margin

Shakhter Soligorsk wins by 2+
27%
Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shakhter Soligorsk 1+ goals
81%
Shakhter Soligorsk 2+ goals
49%
Shakhter Soligorsk 3+ goals
23%
Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
65%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
28%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shakhter Soligorsk (draw refunded)
68%
Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shakhter Soligorsk at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.82 · 103 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shakhter Soligorsk attack 1.81 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.65

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.28 + Shakhter Soligorsk defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shakhter Soligorsk scores more
51%
level
25%
Slavia Mozyr scores more
24%

Shakhter Soligorsk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shakhter Soligorsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shakhter Soligorsk 0–1 Slavia Mozyr

Slavia Mozyr beat Shakhter Soligorsk 1-0 in Premier League on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Budaŭnik in Soligorsk.