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Slavia Mozyr vs Ruh Brest — Premier League 2018

Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
9/12/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Stadyen Junatsva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Slavia Mozyr31%
×Draw26%
Ruh Brest43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Mozyr
1.22
Ruh Brest
1.48

Ruh Brest creates 21% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 29 away

creates per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.27
Ruh Brest
1.76

allows per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.21
Ruh Brest
1.17

finishing

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Mozyr ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slavia Mozyr or draw
57%
Slavia Mozyr or Ruh Brest
74%
Draw or Ruh Brest
69%

Winning margin

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
13%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
70%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
34%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
12%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
77%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
43%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
42%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Mozyr at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.27 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slavia Mozyr scores more
31%
level
26%
Ruh Brest scores more
43%

Ruh Brest at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Mozyr vs Ruh Brest

Slavia Mozyr and Ruh Brest drew 1-1 in Premier League on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen Junatsva in Mozyr.