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Ruh Brest vs Slavia Mozyr — Premier League 2018

Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
4/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Stadyen DASK Brestski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ruh Brest49%
×Draw24%
Slavia Mozyr27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Brest
1.66
Slavia Mozyr
1.18

Ruh Brest creates 41% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 112 away

creates per match

Ruh Brest
1.83
Slavia Mozyr
1.28

allows per match

Ruh Brest
1.07
Slavia Mozyr
1.49

finishing

Ruh Brest+0.00on par
Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Brest ↓

Slavia Mozyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ruh Brest or draw
73%
Ruh Brest or Slavia Mozyr
76%
Draw or Slavia Mozyr
51%

Winning margin

Ruh Brest wins by 2+
26%
Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ruh Brest 1+ goals
81%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
49%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
23%
Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
69%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
33%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
64%
Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Brest at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Brest attack 1.83 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.66

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.28 + Ruh Brest defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ruh Brest scores more
49%
level
24%
Slavia Mozyr scores more
27%

Ruh Brest at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ruh Brest vs Slavia Mozyr

Ruh Brest beat Slavia Mozyr 2-1 in Premier League on April 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen DASK Brestski in Brest.