Slavia Mozyr 0–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

Slavia Mozyr

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

7/7/2023

Premier League · Round 15Stadyen Junatsva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Slavia Mozyr39%

×Draw27%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia MozyrExpected goals in this matchFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Slavia Mozyr

1.33

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.21

Slavia Mozyr creates 10% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 67 away

1.27

creates per match

1.25

1.18

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Slavia Mozyr

1.27

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.25

allows per match

Slavia Mozyr

1.18

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Mozyr ↓

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Slavia Mozyr or draw

66%

Slavia Mozyr or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

73%

Draw or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

61%

Winning margin

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+

18%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals

74%

Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals

38%

Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals

15%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals

70%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals

34%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)

54%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Mozyr at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.40 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.27 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.25 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slavia Mozyr scores more

39%

level

27%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more

34%

Slavia Mozyr at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slavia Mozyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Aleksandr Mikhalenko

12'

A. Antilevskiy← S. Tikhonovskiy

30'

Pavel Pashevich

46'

D. Chul← P. Pashevich

60'

C. Dros← M. Zhumabekov

60'

A. Bakaev← G. Barkovskiy

71'

V. Karpenya← I. Gyamfi

72'

E. Kress← A. Antilevskiy

73'

I. Ageev← M. Omeljanchuk

76'

N. Ryabykh← A. Cobeţ

76'

D. Maniongui← A. Mikhalenko

Statistics

SlaviaFC

Overview

7Corners3