FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2–3 Slavia Mozyr

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Slavia Mozyr

11/20/2021

Premier League · Round 29Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk39%

×Draw25%

Slavia Mozyr36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Energetik-Bgu MinskExpected goals in this matchSlavia Mozyr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.39

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.44

Slavia Mozyr

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 103 away

1.38

creates per match

1.30

1.48

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.38

Slavia Mozyr

1.30

allows per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

1.48

Slavia Mozyr

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk ↓

Slavia Mozyr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or draw

64%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or Slavia Mozyr

75%

Draw or Slavia Mozyr

61%

Winning margin

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+

18%

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals

76%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals

42%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals

18%

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals

75%

Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals

40%

Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)

52%

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.51 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.38 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.30 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more

39%

level

25%

Slavia Mozyr scores more

36%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff