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Slavia Mozyr vs Bate Borisov — Premier League 2018

Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
A. Solovey 10'
D. Zhulpa 50'
6/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Stadion Junost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Slavia Mozyr31%
×Draw27%
Bate Borisov41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Mozyr
1.11
Bate Borisov
1.32

Bate Borisov creates 19% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 112 away

creates per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.27
Bate Borisov
1.47

allows per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.18
Bate Borisov
0.96

finishing

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par
Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Mozyr ↓

Bate Borisov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Slavia Mozyr or draw
59%
Slavia Mozyr or Bate Borisov
73%
Draw or Bate Borisov
69%

Winning margin

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
12%
Bate Borisov wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
67%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
30%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
10%
Bate Borisov 1+ goals
73%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
38%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
43%
Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Mozyr at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Bate Borisov away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.27 + Bate Borisov defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.11

Bate Borisov attack 1.47 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slavia Mozyr scores more
31%
level
27%
Bate Borisov scores more
41%

Bate Borisov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Solovey↳ A. Dzhigero
20'
Ilya Rashchenya
50'
D. Zhulpa↳ V. Sotnikov
52'
V. Kiselev← Y. Charles
56'
I. Kukharchik← A. Cobet
65'
Alexander Dzhigero
65'
Aleksandr Anufriev
70'
V. Likhtin← O. Batyshchev
70'
A. Lukashov← V. Poloz
77'
Victor Sotnikov
79'
M. Telesh← A. Svirepa
86'
Aleksandr Martynov
87'
S. Sazonchik← N. Ivanov

Possession

50%Slavia

Statistics

SlaviaBate
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Corners4
14Fouls15
Shots
4On Target2
6Off Target7
Passing
50%Possession50%
Discipline
14Fouls15
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Premier League: Slavia Mozyr 1–1 Bate Borisov

Slavia Mozyr and Bate Borisov drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Solovey (10'), D. Zhulpa (50').

Slavia Mozyr dominated possession with 50% of the ball.

The match was played at Stadion Junost in Mozyr.