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Bate Borisov vs Slavia Mozyr — Premier League 2018

Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
Y. Charles 36'
T. Lutsevich 48'
11/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Bate Borisov48%
×Draw24%
Slavia Mozyr28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bate Borisov
1.66
Slavia Mozyr
1.21

Bate Borisov creates 37% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 103 away

creates per match

Bate Borisov
1.81
Slavia Mozyr
1.30

allows per match

Bate Borisov
1.12
Slavia Mozyr
1.51

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par
Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Slavia Mozyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw
72%
Bate Borisov or Slavia Mozyr
76%
Draw or Slavia Mozyr
52%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+
25%
Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals
81%
Bate Borisov 2+ goals
49%
Bate Borisov 3+ goals
23%
Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
70%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
34%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)
63%
Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.51 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.81 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.66

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.30 + Bate Borisov defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bate Borisov scores more
48%
level
24%
Slavia Mozyr scores more
28%

Bate Borisov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Vladislav Yatskevich
36'
Y. Charles↳ A. Ageev
46'
Terentiy Lutsevich
46'
T. Lutsevich← I. Gulko
46'
P. Chikida← S. Sazonchik
48'
T. Lutsevich↳ P. Chikida
61'
D. Zhulpa← E. Rusakov
61'
V. Kiselev← V. Yatskevich
63'
Yao Jean Charles Olivier
71'
V. Davydov← V. Poloz
73'
V. Rusenchik← A. Svirepa
73'
M. Telesh← V. Sotnikov
81'
Ilya Rashchenya
85'
R. Piletskiy← N. Neskoromnyi
85'
Y. Kuznetsov← N. Ivanov
90'
K. Chernook← A. Solovey

Statistics

BateSlavia
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Premier League: Bate Borisov 1–1 Slavia Mozyr

Bate Borisov and Slavia Mozyr drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 9, 2025.

Goals: Y. Charles (36'), T. Lutsevich (48').

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Barysaw.