Slavia Hradec Králové 2–3 Dobrovice: Result & Stats

Slavia Hradec Králové

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Dobrovice

11/4/2023

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 14Stadion TJ Slavia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavia Hradec Králové55%

×Draw23%

Dobrovice22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia Hradec KrálovéExpected goals in this matchDobrovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.08

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.84

Dobrovice

1.08

Slavia Hradec Králové creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

1.53

creates per match

0.83

1.33

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.53

Dobrovice

0.83

allows per match

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.33

Dobrovice

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Dobrovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Hradec Králové ↓

Dobrovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Slavia Hradec Králové or draw

78%

Slavia Hradec Králové or Dobrovice

77%

Draw or Dobrovice

45%

Winning margin

Slavia Hradec Králové wins by 2+

31%

Dobrovice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Slavia Hradec Králové 1+ goals

84%

Slavia Hradec Králové 2+ goals

55%

Slavia Hradec Králové 3+ goals

28%

Dobrovice 1+ goals

66%

Dobrovice 2+ goals

29%

Dobrovice 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Slavia Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

71%

Dobrovice (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Hradec Králové at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Dobrovice away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Hradec Králové attack 1.53 + Dobrovice defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.84

Dobrovice attack 0.83 + Slavia Hradec Králové defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Slavia Hradec Králové scores more

55%

level

23%

Dobrovice scores more

22%

Slavia Hradec Králové at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Slavia Hradec Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff