Dobrovice 0–2 Slavia Hradec Králové: Result & Stats

Dobrovice

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Slavia Hradec Králové

6/1/2024

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 29Městský stadion FK Dobrovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dobrovice46%

×Draw23%

Slavia Hradec Králové31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DobroviceExpected goals in this matchSlavia Hradec Králové

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.47

Dobrovice

1.81

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.47

Dobrovice creates 23% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

1.30

creates per match

1.33

1.61

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Dobrovice

1.30

Slavia Hradec Králové

1.33

allows per match

Dobrovice

1.61

Slavia Hradec Králové

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dobrovice+0.00on par

Slavia Hradec Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrovice ↓

Slavia Hradec Králové →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dobrovice or draw

69%

Dobrovice or Slavia Hradec Králové

77%

Draw or Slavia Hradec Králové

54%

Winning margin

Dobrovice wins by 2+

25%

Slavia Hradec Králové wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dobrovice 1+ goals

84%

Dobrovice 2+ goals

54%

Dobrovice 3+ goals

27%

Slavia Hradec Králové 1+ goals

77%

Slavia Hradec Králové 2+ goals

43%

Slavia Hradec Králové 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dobrovice (draw refunded)

59%

Slavia Hradec Králové (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrovice at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

Slavia Hradec Králové away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrovice attack 1.30 + Slavia Hradec Králové defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Slavia Hradec Králové attack 1.33 + Dobrovice defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dobrovice scores more

46%

level

23%

Slavia Hradec Králové scores more

31%

Dobrovice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dobrovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff