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Slaven Živinice vs Radnik Hadžići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
FT
1 – 3
Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
6/5/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 30Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slaven Živinice32%
×Draw26%
Radnik Hadžići42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slaven Živinice
1.21
Radnik Hadžići
1.44

Radnik Hadžići creates 19% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 94 away

creates per match

Slaven Živinice
0.83
Radnik Hadžići
0.97

allows per match

Slaven Živinice
1.91
Radnik Hadžići
1.59

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par
Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Radnik Hadžići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw
58%
Slaven Živinice or Radnik Hadžići
74%
Draw or Radnik Hadžići
68%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
13%
Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
70%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
34%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
12%
Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
76%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
42%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
43%
Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Radnik Hadžići away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + Radnik Hadžići defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Radnik Hadžići attack 0.97 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more
32%
level
26%
Radnik Hadžići scores more
42%

Radnik Hadžići at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radnik Hadžići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slaven Živinice vs Radnik Hadžići

Radnik Hadžići beat Slaven Živinice 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Živinice.