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Radnik Hadžići vs Slaven Živinice — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
FT
3 – 1
Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
11/14/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Radnik Hadžići66%
×Draw21%
Slaven Živinice14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnik Hadžići
1.97
Slaven Živinice
0.76

Radnik Hadžići creates 159% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 23 away

creates per match

Radnik Hadžići
1.16
Slaven Živinice
0.57

allows per match

Radnik Hadžići
0.96
Slaven Živinice
2.78

finishing

Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par
Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnik Hadžići ↓

Slaven Živinice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Radnik Hadžići or draw
86%
Radnik Hadžići or Slaven Živinice
79%
Draw or Slaven Živinice
34%

Winning margin

Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
40%
Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
86%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
58%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
31%
Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
53%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
18%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
83%
Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnik Hadžići at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.96 · 96 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnik Hadžići attack 1.16 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.97

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + Radnik Hadžići defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Radnik Hadžići scores more
66%
level
21%
Slaven Živinice scores more
14%

Radnik Hadžići at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Radnik Hadžići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Radnik Hadžići 3–1 Slaven Živinice

Radnik Hadžići beat Slaven Živinice 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Hadžići.