Slaven Živinice 0–4 Posušje: Result & Stats

Slaven Živinice

FT

0 – 4

Posušje

3/13/2021

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slaven Živinice17%

×Draw27%

Posušje57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slaven ŽiviniceExpected goals in this matchPosušje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

1.46

Slaven Živinice

0.65

Posušje

1.46

Posušje creates 125% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

0.83

creates per match

1.00

1.91

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Slaven Živinice

0.83

Posušje

1.00

allows per match

Slaven Živinice

1.91

Posušje

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Posušje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Posušje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–118%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw

43%

Slaven Živinice or Posušje

73%

Draw or Posušje

83%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+

4%

Posušje wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals

48%

Slaven Živinice 2+ goals

14%

Slaven Živinice 3+ goals

3%

Posušje 1+ goals

77%

Posušje 2+ goals

43%

Posušje 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)

23%

Posušje (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Posušje away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + Posušje defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.65

Posušje attack 1.00 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more

17%

level

27%

Posušje scores more

57%

Posušje at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff