Posušje 2–0 Slaven Živinice: Result & Stats

Posušje

FT

2 – 0

Slaven Živinice

8/15/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 2Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Posušje80%

×Draw14%

Slaven Živinice6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PosušjeExpected goals in this matchSlaven Živinice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

0.55

Posušje

2.52

Slaven Živinice

0.55

Posušje creates 358% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

2.27

creates per match

0.57

0.53

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Posušje

2.27

Slaven Živinice

0.57

allows per match

Posušje

0.53

Slaven Živinice

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Slaven Živinice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Posušje or draw

94%

Posušje or Slaven Živinice

86%

Draw or Slaven Živinice

20%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+

58%

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals

92%

Posušje 2+ goals

71%

Posušje 3+ goals

45%

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals

42%

Slaven Živinice 2+ goals

11%

Slaven Živinice 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)

93%

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 2.27 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.52

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + Posušje defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Posušje scores more

80%

level

14%

Slaven Živinice scores more

6%

Posušje at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff