Slaven Živinice 1–1 Igman Konjic: Result & Stats

Slaven Živinice

FT

1 – 1

Igman Konjic

8/8/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slaven Živinice29%

×Draw26%

Igman Konjic45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slaven ŽiviniceExpected goals in this matchIgman Konjic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.48

Slaven Živinice

1.12

Igman Konjic

1.48

Igman Konjic creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 51 away

0.83

creates per match

1.04

1.91

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Slaven Živinice

0.83

Igman Konjic

1.04

allows per match

Slaven Živinice

1.91

Igman Konjic

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Igman Konjic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw

55%

Slaven Živinice or Igman Konjic

74%

Draw or Igman Konjic

71%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+

11%

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals

67%

Slaven Živinice 2+ goals

31%

Slaven Živinice 3+ goals

10%

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

77%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

43%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)

39%

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Igman Konjic away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + Igman Konjic defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.12

Igman Konjic attack 1.04 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more

29%

level

26%

Igman Konjic scores more

45%

Igman Konjic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff