Igman Konjic 2–1 Slaven Živinice: Result & Stats

Igman Konjic

FT

2 – 1

Slaven Živinice

9/21/2019

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 7Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Igman Konjic71%

×Draw18%

Slaven Živinice11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Igman KonjicExpected goals in this matchSlaven Živinice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.69

Igman Konjic

2.15

Slaven Živinice

0.69

Igman Konjic creates 212% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 23 away

1.53

creates per match

0.57

0.80

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Igman Konjic

1.53

Slaven Živinice

0.57

allows per match

Igman Konjic

0.80

Slaven Živinice

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Igman Konjic+0.00on par

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Igman Konjic ↓

Slaven Živinice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Igman Konjic or draw

89%

Igman Konjic or Slaven Živinice

82%

Draw or Slaven Živinice

29%

Winning margin

Igman Konjic wins by 2+

46%

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Igman Konjic 1+ goals

88%

Igman Konjic 2+ goals

63%

Igman Konjic 3+ goals

36%

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals

50%

Slaven Živinice 2+ goals

15%

Slaven Živinice 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Igman Konjic (draw refunded)

87%

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Igman Konjic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Igman Konjic attack 1.53 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.15

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + Igman Konjic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Igman Konjic scores more

71%

level

18%

Slaven Živinice scores more

11%

Igman Konjic at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Igman Konjic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff