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Slaven Živinice vs Goražde — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
FT
1 – 2
Goražde
Goražde
3/27/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slaven Živinice29%
×Draw27%
Goražde45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slaven Živinice
1.08
Goražde
1.41

Goražde creates 31% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 82 away

creates per match

Slaven Živinice
0.83
Goražde
0.91

allows per match

Slaven Živinice
1.91
Goražde
1.34

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par
Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Goražde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw
55%
Slaven Živinice or Goražde
73%
Draw or Goražde
71%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
11%
Goražde wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
66%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
29%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
10%
Goražde 1+ goals
76%
Goražde 2+ goals
41%
Goražde 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
39%
Goražde (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Goražde attack 0.91 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more
29%
level
27%
Goražde scores more
45%

Goražde at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slaven Živinice vs Goražde

Goražde beat Slaven Živinice 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Živinice.