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Goražde vs Slaven Živinice — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Goražde
Goražde
FT
0 – 0
Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
8/29/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 4Stadion Midhat Drljević

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Goražde71%
×Draw18%
Slaven Živinice11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goražde
2.22
Slaven Živinice
0.75

Goražde creates 196% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 23 away

creates per match

Goražde
1.67
Slaven Živinice
0.57

allows per match

Goražde
0.94
Slaven Živinice
2.78

finishing

Goražde+0.00on par
Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goražde ↓

Slaven Živinice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Goražde or draw
89%
Goražde or Slaven Živinice
82%
Draw or Slaven Živinice
29%

Winning margin

Goražde wins by 2+
47%
Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Goražde 1+ goals
89%
Goražde 2+ goals
65%
Goražde 3+ goals
38%
Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
53%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
17%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Goražde (draw refunded)
86%
Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goražde at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goražde attack 1.67 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.22

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + Goražde defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Goražde scores more
71%
level
18%
Slaven Živinice scores more
11%

Goražde at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Goražde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goražde vs Slaven Živinice

Goražde and Slaven Živinice drew 0-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Midhat Drljević in Goražde.