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Slaven Živinice vs Čapljina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
FT
0 – 1
Čapljina
Čapljina
11/7/20201st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slaven Živinice37%
×Draw25%
Čapljina38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slaven Živinice
1.40
Čapljina
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Slaven Živinice
0.83
Čapljina
0.91

allows per match

Slaven Živinice
1.91
Čapljina
1.96

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par
Čapljina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Čapljina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw
62%
Slaven Živinice or Čapljina
75%
Draw or Čapljina
63%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
17%
Čapljina wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
75%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
41%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
17%
Čapljina 1+ goals
76%
Čapljina 2+ goals
41%
Čapljina 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
50%
Čapljina (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Čapljina away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + Čapljina defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.40

Čapljina attack 0.91 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more
37%
level
25%
Čapljina scores more
38%

Čapljina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Slaven Živinice 0–1 Čapljina

Čapljina beat Slaven Živinice 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Živinice.