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Čapljina vs Slaven Živinice — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čapljina
Čapljina
FT
5 – 1
Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
5/29/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 29Stadion Bjelave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Čapljina71%
×Draw18%
Slaven Živinice11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čapljina
2.17
Slaven Živinice
0.70

Čapljina creates 210% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Čapljina
1.57
Slaven Živinice
0.57

allows per match

Čapljina
0.83
Slaven Živinice
2.78

finishing

Čapljina+0.00on par
Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čapljina ↓

Slaven Živinice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Čapljina or draw
89%
Čapljina or Slaven Živinice
82%
Draw or Slaven Živinice
29%

Winning margin

Čapljina wins by 2+
46%
Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Čapljina 1+ goals
89%
Čapljina 2+ goals
64%
Čapljina 3+ goals
36%
Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
50%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
16%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Čapljina (draw refunded)
87%
Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čapljina at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čapljina attack 1.57 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.17

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + Čapljina defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Čapljina scores more
71%
level
18%
Slaven Živinice scores more
11%

Čapljina at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Čapljina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Čapljina 5–1 Slaven Živinice

Čapljina beat Slaven Živinice 5-1 in 1st League - FBiH on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Bjelave in Čapljina.