Slaven Živinice 1–1 Budućnost Banovići

Slaven Živinice

FT

1 – 1

Budućnost Banovići

10/3/2020

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 9Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slaven Živinice32%

×Draw25%

Budućnost Banovići42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slaven ŽiviniceExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Banovići

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.49

Slaven Živinice

1.27

Budućnost Banovići

1.49

Budućnost Banovići creates 17% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 95 away

0.83

creates per match

1.07

1.91

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Slaven Živinice

0.83

Budućnost Banovići

1.07

allows per match

Slaven Živinice

1.91

Budućnost Banovići

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Budućnost Banovići →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw

58%

Slaven Živinice or Budućnost Banovići

75%

Draw or Budućnost Banovići

68%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+

14%

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals

72%

Slaven Živinice 2+ goals

36%

Slaven Živinice 3+ goals

14%

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals

77%

Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals

44%

Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)

43%

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Budućnost Banovići away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + Budućnost Banovići defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.27

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.07 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more

32%

level

25%

Budućnost Banovići scores more

42%

Budućnost Banovići at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff