Budućnost Banovići 2–1 Slaven Živinice

Budućnost Banovići

FT

2 – 1

Slaven Živinice

11/2/2019

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Budućnost Banovići71%

×Draw18%

Slaven Živinice11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budućnost BanovićiExpected goals in this matchSlaven Živinice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.74

Budućnost Banovići

2.23

Slaven Živinice

0.74

Budućnost Banovići creates 201% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 23 away

1.68

creates per match

0.57

0.92

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Budućnost Banovići

1.68

Slaven Živinice

0.57

allows per match

Budućnost Banovići

0.92

Slaven Živinice

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budućnost Banovići+0.00on par

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Banovići ↓

Slaven Živinice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Budućnost Banovići or draw

89%

Budućnost Banovići or Slaven Živinice

82%

Draw or Slaven Živinice

29%

Winning margin

Budućnost Banovići wins by 2+

47%

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Budućnost Banovići 1+ goals

89%

Budućnost Banovići 2+ goals

65%

Budućnost Banovići 3+ goals

38%

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals

52%

Slaven Živinice 2+ goals

17%

Slaven Živinice 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Banovići (draw refunded)

87%

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Banovići at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Banovići attack 1.68 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.23

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + Budućnost Banovići defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Budućnost Banovići scores more

71%

level

18%

Slaven Živinice scores more

11%

Budućnost Banovići at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Budućnost Banovići will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff