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Slaven Živinice vs Bratstvo Gračanica — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
FT
0 – 7
Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
4/24/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 23Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Slaven Živinice30%
×Draw26%
Bratstvo Gračanica44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slaven Živinice
1.12
Bratstvo Gračanica
1.42

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 27% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 96 away

creates per match

Slaven Živinice
0.83
Bratstvo Gračanica
0.94

allows per match

Slaven Živinice
1.91
Bratstvo Gračanica
1.41

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par
Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Bratstvo Gračanica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw
56%
Slaven Živinice or Bratstvo Gračanica
74%
Draw or Bratstvo Gračanica
70%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
12%
Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
67%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
31%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
10%
Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
76%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
41%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
40%
Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Bratstvo Gračanica away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.12

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 0.94 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more
30%
level
26%
Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
44%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slaven Živinice vs Bratstvo Gračanica

Bratstvo Gračanica beat Slaven Živinice 7-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Živinice.