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Bratstvo Gračanica vs Slaven Živinice — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
FT
3 – 2
Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
11/16/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bratstvo Gračanica69%
×Draw18%
Slaven Živinice13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bratstvo Gračanica
2.29
Slaven Živinice
0.88

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 160% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 23 away

creates per match

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.81
Slaven Živinice
0.57

allows per match

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.18
Slaven Živinice
2.78

finishing

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par
Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Gračanica ↓

Slaven Živinice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bratstvo Gračanica or draw
87%
Bratstvo Gračanica or Slaven Živinice
82%
Draw or Slaven Živinice
31%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
45%
Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
90%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
66%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
40%
Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
59%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
22%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
84%
Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Gračanica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 1.81 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.29

Slaven Živinice attack 0.57 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
69%
level
18%
Slaven Živinice scores more
13%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bratstvo Gračanica vs Slaven Živinice

Bratstvo Gračanica beat Slaven Živinice 3-2 in 1st League - FBiH on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Luke in Gračanica.