Slask Wroclaw W 5–1 Medyk Konin W: Result & Stats

Slask Wroclaw W

FT

5 – 1

Medyk Konin W

3/23/2024

Ekstraliga Women · Round 15Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Slask Wroclaw W70%

×Draw17%

Medyk Konin W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slask Wroclaw WExpected goals in this matchMedyk Konin W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

0.98

Slask Wroclaw W

2.51

Medyk Konin W

0.98

Slask Wroclaw W creates 156% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

0.55

1.41

allows per match

3.09

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw W

1.94

Medyk Konin W

0.55

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw W

1.41

Medyk Konin W

3.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slask Wroclaw W+0.00on par

Medyk Konin W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw W ↓

Medyk Konin W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw W or draw

87%

Slask Wroclaw W or Medyk Konin W

83%

Draw or Medyk Konin W

30%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw W wins by 2+

48%

Medyk Konin W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw W 1+ goals

92%

Slask Wroclaw W 2+ goals

71%

Slask Wroclaw W 3+ goals

45%

Medyk Konin W 1+ goals

62%

Medyk Konin W 2+ goals

26%

Medyk Konin W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw W (draw refunded)

84%

Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw W at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

Medyk Konin W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw W attack 1.94 + Medyk Konin W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 2.51

Medyk Konin W attack 0.55 + Slask Wroclaw W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Slask Wroclaw W scores more

70%

level

17%

Medyk Konin W scores more

13%

Slask Wroclaw W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff