Medyk Konin W 2–5 Slask Wroclaw W: Result & Stats

Medyk Konin W

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 1

Slask Wroclaw W

9/10/2023

Ekstraliga Women · Round 4Stadion Miejski im. Złotej Jedenastki Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Medyk Konin W30%

×Draw20%

Slask Wroclaw W50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Medyk Konin WExpected goals in this matchSlask Wroclaw W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.27

Medyk Konin W

1.73

Slask Wroclaw W

2.27

Slask Wroclaw W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

1.64

creates per match

1.91

2.64

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Medyk Konin W

1.64

Slask Wroclaw W

1.91

allows per match

Medyk Konin W

2.64

Slask Wroclaw W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Medyk Konin W+0.00on par

Slask Wroclaw W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medyk Konin W ↓

Slask Wroclaw W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Medyk Konin W or draw

50%

Medyk Konin W or Slask Wroclaw W

80%

Draw or Slask Wroclaw W

70%

Winning margin

Medyk Konin W wins by 2+

15%

Slask Wroclaw W wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Medyk Konin W 1+ goals

82%

Medyk Konin W 2+ goals

52%

Medyk Konin W 3+ goals

25%

Slask Wroclaw W 1+ goals

90%

Slask Wroclaw W 2+ goals

66%

Slask Wroclaw W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Medyk Konin W (draw refunded)

37%

Slask Wroclaw W (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medyk Konin W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Slask Wroclaw W away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medyk Konin W attack 1.64 + Slask Wroclaw W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Slask Wroclaw W attack 1.91 + Medyk Konin W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Medyk Konin W scores more

30%

level

20%

Slask Wroclaw W scores more

50%

Slask Wroclaw W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff