Slask Wroclaw 2–1 Stal Mielec: Result & Stats

Slask Wroclaw

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Stal Mielec

10/19/2025

I Liga · Round 13Tarczynski Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Slask Wroclaw45%

×Draw25%

Stal Mielec30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slask WroclawExpected goals in this matchStal Mielec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.23

Slask Wroclaw

1.58

Stal Mielec

1.23

Slask Wroclaw creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

1.88

creates per match

1.47

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.88

Stal Mielec

1.47

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.00

Stal Mielec

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slask Wroclaw+0.00on par

Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw ↓

Stal Mielec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw or draw

70%

Slask Wroclaw or Stal Mielec

75%

Draw or Stal Mielec

55%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+

23%

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals

79%

Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals

47%

Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals

21%

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

71%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

35%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)

60%

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.88 + Stal Mielec defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stal Mielec attack 1.47 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slask Wroclaw scores more

45%

level

25%

Stal Mielec scores more

30%

Slask Wroclaw at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff