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Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec — Ekstraklasa 2018

Slask Wroclaw
Slask Wroclaw
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
2/16/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 21Tarczyński Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Slask Wroclaw48%
×Draw25%
Stal Mielec27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slask Wroclaw
1.60
Stal Mielec
1.15

Slask Wroclaw creates 39% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 83 away

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw
1.41
Stal Mielec
1.11

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw
1.18
Stal Mielec
1.80

finishing

Slask Wroclaw+0.00on par
Stal Mielec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw ↓

Stal Mielec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw or draw
73%
Slask Wroclaw or Stal Mielec
75%
Draw or Stal Mielec
52%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+
25%
Stal Mielec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals
80%
Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals
47%
Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals
22%
Stal Mielec 1+ goals
68%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
32%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)
64%
Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 120 matches

Stal Mielec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.41 + Stal Mielec defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Stal Mielec attack 1.11 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Slask Wroclaw scores more
48%
level
25%
Stal Mielec scores more
27%

Slask Wroclaw at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slask Wroclaw vs Stal Mielec

Stal Mielec beat Slask Wroclaw 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Tarczyński Arena in Wrocław.