Slask Wroclaw 4–0 ŁKS Łódź: Result & Stats

Slask Wroclaw

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

ŁKS Łódź

6/14/2020

Ekstraklasa · Round 30Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Slask Wroclaw59%

×Draw23%

ŁKS Łódź18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slask WroclawExpected goals in this matchŁKS Łódź

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.91

Slask Wroclaw

1.83

ŁKS Łódź

0.91

Slask Wroclaw creates 101% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 36 away

1.41

creates per match

0.64

1.18

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.41

ŁKS Łódź

0.64

allows per match

Slask Wroclaw

1.18

ŁKS Łódź

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slask Wroclaw+0.00on par

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slask Wroclaw ↓

ŁKS Łódź →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Slask Wroclaw or draw

82%

Slask Wroclaw or ŁKS Łódź

77%

Draw or ŁKS Łódź

41%

Winning margin

Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+

34%

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals

84%

Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals

54%

Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals

28%

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals

60%

ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals

23%

ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)

76%

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slask Wroclaw at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 120 matches

ŁKS Łódź away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.25 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.41 + ŁKS Łódź defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.83

ŁKS Łódź attack 0.64 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Slask Wroclaw scores more

59%

level

23%

ŁKS Łódź scores more

18%

Slask Wroclaw at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff