Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw — Ekstraklasa 2018

ŁKS Łódź
ŁKS Łódź
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Slask Wroclaw
Slask Wroclaw
5/4/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 31Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

ŁKS Łódź35%
×Draw25%
Slask Wroclaw40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź
1.32
Slask Wroclaw
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 120 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.26
Slask Wroclaw
1.10

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź
1.77
Slask Wroclaw
1.38

finishing

ŁKS Łódź+0.00on par
Slask Wroclaw+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź ↓

Slask Wroclaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź or draw
60%
ŁKS Łódź or Slask Wroclaw
75%
Draw or Slask Wroclaw
65%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź wins by 2+
15%
Slask Wroclaw wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź 1+ goals
73%
ŁKS Łódź 2+ goals
38%
ŁKS Łódź 3+ goals
15%
Slask Wroclaw 1+ goals
76%
Slask Wroclaw 2+ goals
42%
Slask Wroclaw 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź (draw refunded)
46%
Slask Wroclaw (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Slask Wroclaw away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź attack 1.26 + Slask Wroclaw defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Slask Wroclaw attack 1.10 + ŁKS Łódź defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ŁKS Łódź scores more
35%
level
25%
Slask Wroclaw scores more
40%

Slask Wroclaw at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slask Wroclaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ŁKS Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw

Slask Wroclaw beat ŁKS Łódź 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Łódź.