Śląsk Wrocław II 1–2 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Śląsk Wrocław II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

7/26/2025

II Liga - East · Round 1Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II38%

×Draw24%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Śląsk Wrocław IIExpected goals in this matchRekord Bielsko-Biała

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.54

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.52

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

1.38

creates per match

1.61

1.47

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.38

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.61

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.47

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw

62%

Śląsk Wrocław II or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

76%

Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

62%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+

18%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals

78%

Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals

45%

Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals

20%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

79%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

45%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)

49%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 1.38 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.61 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more

38%

level

24%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

38%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff