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Śląsk Wrocław II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
11/26/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II48%
×Draw22%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław II
1.90
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.43

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.32
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.97

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
0.88
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
1.48

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par
Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw
71%
Śląsk Wrocław II or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
78%
Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała
52%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
27%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
85%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
56%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
29%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals
76%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals
42%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
62%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.32 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.90

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.97 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
48%
level
22%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more
29%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Śląsk Wrocław II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Śląsk Wrocław II beat Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Oporowska in Wrocław.