Śląsk Wrocław II 2–5 Radunia Stężyca

Śląsk Wrocław II

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 1

Radunia Stężyca

10/17/2021

II Liga - East · Round 13Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II43%

×Draw24%

Radunia Stężyca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Śląsk Wrocław IIExpected goals in this matchRadunia Stężyca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.36

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.58

Radunia Stężyca

1.36

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 61 away

1.38

creates per match

1.25

1.47

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.38

Radunia Stężyca

1.25

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.47

Radunia Stężyca

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Radunia Stężyca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw

67%

Śląsk Wrocław II or Radunia Stężyca

76%

Draw or Radunia Stężyca

57%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+

21%

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals

79%

Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals

47%

Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals

21%

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

74%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

39%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)

56%

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 1.38 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more

43%

level

24%

Radunia Stężyca scores more

33%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff