Radunia Stężyca 4–2 Śląsk Wrocław II

Radunia Stężyca

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Śląsk Wrocław II

4/27/2022

II Liga - East · Round 30Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Radunia Stężyca42%

×Draw24%

Śląsk Wrocław II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radunia StężycaExpected goals in this matchŚląsk Wrocław II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.48

Radunia Stężyca

1.65

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.48

Radunia Stężyca creates 11% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 69 away

1.59

creates per match

1.68

1.27

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca

1.59

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.68

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca

1.27

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw

65%

Radunia Stężyca or Śląsk Wrocław II

76%

Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II

58%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

21%

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

81%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

49%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

23%

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals

77%

Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals

43%

Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

55%

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.71 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 1.68 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more

42%

level

24%

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more

35%

Radunia Stężyca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff