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Śląsk Wrocław II vs Lechia Zielona Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
11/4/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II53%
×Draw23%
Lechia Zielona Góra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław II
1.86
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.19

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 103 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.32
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.50

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
0.88
Lechia Zielona Góra
1.41

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par
Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Lechia Zielona Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw
76%
Śląsk Wrocław II or Lechia Zielona Góra
77%
Draw or Lechia Zielona Góra
47%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
30%
Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
84%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
55%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
28%
Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
70%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
33%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
68%
Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Lechia Zielona Góra away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.32 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.86

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.50 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
53%
level
23%
Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
24%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Śląsk Wrocław II 2–2 Lechia Zielona Góra

Śląsk Wrocław II and Lechia Zielona Góra drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Oporowska in Wrocław.