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Lechia Zielona Góra vs Śląsk Wrocław II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Lechia Zielona Góra
Lechia Zielona Góra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
5/31/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 33Boisko 2 MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lechia Zielona Góra30%
×Draw24%
Śląsk Wrocław II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.28
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.65

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.62
Śląsk Wrocław II
2.12

allows per match

Lechia Zielona Góra
1.18
Śląsk Wrocław II
0.94

finishing

Lechia Zielona Góra+0.00on par
Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Zielona Góra ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lechia Zielona Góra or draw
54%
Lechia Zielona Góra or Śląsk Wrocław II
76%
Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II
70%

Winning margin

Lechia Zielona Góra wins by 2+
13%
Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lechia Zielona Góra 1+ goals
72%
Lechia Zielona Góra 2+ goals
37%
Lechia Zielona Góra 3+ goals
14%
Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
81%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
49%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lechia Zielona Góra (draw refunded)
39%
Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Zielona Góra at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Zielona Góra attack 1.62 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.28

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.12 + Lechia Zielona Góra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lechia Zielona Góra scores more
30%
level
24%
Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
46%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Lechia Zielona Góra 0–1 Śląsk Wrocław II

Śląsk Wrocław II beat Lechia Zielona Góra 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Boisko 2 MOSiR in Zielona Góra.