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Śląsk Wrocław II vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
S. Lewkot 84'
J. Jezierski 67'
K. Trelowski 59' (OG)
K. Bedzieszak 43' (pen)
10/1/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II59%
×Draw21%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.08
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.14

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.32
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
0.88
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw
80%
Śląsk Wrocław II or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
79%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
41%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
36%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
87%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
61%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
34%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
68%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
32%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
74%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.32 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
59%
level
21%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
20%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
K. BedzieszakPenalty
59'
K. TrelowskiOwn goal
67'
J. Jezierski
80'
84'
S. Lewkot

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Śląsk Wrocław II 2–2 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Śląsk Wrocław II and Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 1, 2023.

Goals: K. Bedzieszak (43' pen), K. Trelowski (59' o.g.), J. Jezierski (67'), S. Lewkot (84').

The match was played at Stadion Oporowska in Wrocław.