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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Śląsk Wrocław II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
4/27/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry26%
×Draw23%
Śląsk Wrocław II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.21
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.79

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Śląsk Wrocław II
2.12

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Śląsk Wrocław II
0.94

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
49%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Śląsk Wrocław II
77%
Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II
74%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
10%
Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
70%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
34%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
12%
Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
83%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
53%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
34%
Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.12 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
26%
level
23%
Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
51%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1–1 Śląsk Wrocław II

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry and Śląsk Wrocław II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.