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Śląsk Wrocław II vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
8/3/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II51%
×Draw23%
Górnik Polkowice26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Śląsk Wrocław II
1.82
Górnik Polkowice
1.22

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
2.32
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II
0.88
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw
74%
Śląsk Wrocław II or Górnik Polkowice
77%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
49%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
29%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
84%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
54%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
27%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
70%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
34%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
67%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.32 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.82

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
51%
level
23%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
26%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Śląsk Wrocław II vs Górnik Polkowice

Śląsk Wrocław II beat Górnik Polkowice 4-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Oporowska in Wrocław.