Górnik Polkowice 3–3 Śląsk Wrocław II

Górnik Polkowice

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Śląsk Wrocław II

R. Karmelita 90+3'

M. Magdziak 90'

A. Piech 48'

D. Matuszewski 74'

K. Zaborski 51'

J. Jezierski 34'

10/7/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Górnik Polkowice30%

×Draw24%

Śląsk Wrocław II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchŚląsk Wrocław II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.69

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.69

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

1.72

creates per match

2.12

1.26

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.72

Śląsk Wrocław II

2.12

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.26

Śląsk Wrocław II

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

54%

Górnik Polkowice or Śląsk Wrocław II

76%

Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II

70%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

13%

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

74%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

38%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

15%

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals

82%

Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals

50%

Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

40%

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 2.12, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.33

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 2.12 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

30%

level

24%

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more

46%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

J. Jezierski

48'

A. Piech

51'

K. Zaborski

74'

D. Matuszewski

87'

F. Gryglak

87'

F. Gryglak

90'

M. Magdziak

90+3'

R. Karmelita

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff