Śląsk Wrocław II 3–2 Bytovia Bytów: Result & Stats

Śląsk Wrocław II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bytovia Bytów

4/11/2021

II Liga - East · Round 26Stadion Oporowska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Śląsk Wrocław II44%

×Draw24%

Bytovia Bytów31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Śląsk Wrocław IIExpected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.32

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.62

Bytovia Bytów

1.32

Śląsk Wrocław II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

1.47

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.38

Bytovia Bytów

1.17

allows per match

Śląsk Wrocław II

1.47

Bytovia Bytów

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Śląsk Wrocław II ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Śląsk Wrocław II or draw

69%

Śląsk Wrocław II or Bytovia Bytów

76%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

56%

Winning margin

Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+

23%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals

80%

Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals

48%

Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals

22%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

73%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

38%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)

59%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Śląsk Wrocław II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 1.38 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Śląsk Wrocław II scores more

44%

level

24%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

31%

Śląsk Wrocław II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Śląsk Wrocław II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff