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Bytovia Bytów vs Śląsk Wrocław II — II Liga - East 2019

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Śląsk Wrocław II
Śląsk Wrocław II
10/3/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 7Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów41%
×Draw24%
Śląsk Wrocław II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.64
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.57
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.68

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.37
Śląsk Wrocław II
1.71

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Śląsk Wrocław II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Śląsk Wrocław II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
64%
Bytovia Bytów or Śląsk Wrocław II
76%
Draw or Śląsk Wrocław II
59%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
21%
Śląsk Wrocław II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
81%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
49%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
23%
Śląsk Wrocław II 1+ goals
78%
Śląsk Wrocław II 2+ goals
45%
Śląsk Wrocław II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
53%
Śląsk Wrocław II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Śląsk Wrocław II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.71 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Śląsk Wrocław II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Śląsk Wrocław II attack 1.68 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
41%
level
24%
Śląsk Wrocław II scores more
36%

Bytovia Bytów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bytovia Bytów vs Śląsk Wrocław II

Bytovia Bytów and Śląsk Wrocław II drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Bytów.