SKRA Częstochowa 1–2 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

SKRA Częstochowa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

K. Ropski 86'

S. Sobczak 82', 57' (pen)

3/20/2022

I Liga · Round 24Boisko Kresowa 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa34%

×Draw29%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKRA CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.16

SKRA Częstochowa

1.11

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 85 away

0.74

creates per match

0.94

1.38

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa

0.74

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.94

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa

1.38

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw

63%

SKRA Częstochowa or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

71%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

66%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

14%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

67%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

30%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

10%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

69%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

32%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

48%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 0.74 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.11

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.94 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

34%

level

29%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

37%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

F. Borowski

56'

B. Baranowicz

57'

S. SobczakPenalty

63'

M. Kwietniewski← P. Pyrdoł

70'

K. Ropski← A. Olejnik

73'

M. Banaszewski← P. Bryła

77'

W. Kamiński← S. Pawłowski

82'

S. Sobczak

85'

L. Ďuriška← D. Jończy

85'

V. Sanogo← S. Sobczak

86'

K. Ropski

90+2'

J. Ribeiro Oliveira

SKRA

Zaglebie

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Gerega

63'▲M. Kwietniewski←▼P. Pyrdoł

70'▲K. Ropski←▼A. Olejnik

SKRA Częstochowa substitutes

KwietniewskiRopskiNiedbałaNaporaHolikMalecPosmykSujecki

Manager: A. Skowronek

73'▲M. Banaszewski←▼P. Bryła

77'▲W. Kamiński←▼S. Pawłowski

85'▲L. Ďuriška←▼D. Jończy

85'▲V. Sanogo←▼S. Sobczak

Zaglebie Sosnowiec substitutes

BanaszewskiKamińskiĎuriškaSanogoRyndakBielikowMasłowskiPopczykKorzeniecki