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SKRA Częstochowa vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
9/15/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 9Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa48%
×Draw25%
Radunia Stężyca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.58
Radunia Stężyca
1.10

SKRA Częstochowa creates 44% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.37
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.95
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
74%
SKRA Częstochowa or Radunia Stężyca
75%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
52%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
25%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
79%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
47%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
21%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
67%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
30%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
65%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
48%
level
25%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
26%

SKRA Częstochowa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: SKRA Częstochowa 1–1 Radunia Stężyca

SKRA Częstochowa and Radunia Stężyca drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.