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Radunia Stężyca vs SKRA Częstochowa — II Liga - East 2019

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
3/30/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 26Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Radunia Stężyca48%
×Draw25%
SKRA Częstochowa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
1.63
SKRA Częstochowa
1.16

Radunia Stężyca creates 41% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 61 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.59
SKRA Częstochowa
1.05

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
1.27
SKRA Częstochowa
1.66

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
73%
Radunia Stężyca or SKRA Częstochowa
75%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
52%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
25%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
80%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
48%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
22%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
69%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
32%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
64%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.59 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
48%
level
25%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
27%

Radunia Stężyca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Radunia Stężyca 3–2 SKRA Częstochowa

Radunia Stężyca beat SKRA Częstochowa 3-2 in II Liga - East on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.