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SKRA Częstochowa vs Legionovia Legionowo — II Liga - East 2019

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
11/27/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 18Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa57%
×Draw23%
Legionovia Legionowo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.83
Legionovia Legionowo
1.00

SKRA Częstochowa creates 83% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 17 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.37
Legionovia Legionowo
1.06

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.95
Legionovia Legionowo
2.29

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
80%
SKRA Częstochowa or Legionovia Legionowo
77%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
43%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
32%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
84%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
54%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
28%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
63%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
26%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
74%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.06 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
57%
level
23%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
20%

SKRA Częstochowa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKRA Częstochowa vs Legionovia Legionowo

SKRA Częstochowa beat Legionovia Legionowo 1-0 in II Liga - East on November 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.