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Legionovia Legionowo vs SKRA Częstochowa — II Liga - East 2019

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
7/27/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo37%
×Draw27%
SKRA Częstochowa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.27
SKRA Częstochowa
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 61 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
0.88
SKRA Częstochowa
1.05

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.47
SKRA Częstochowa
1.66

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
64%
Legionovia Legionowo or SKRA Częstochowa
73%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
63%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
16%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
72%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
36%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
14%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
72%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
36%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
50%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 0.88 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.27

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
37%
level
27%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
36%

Legionovia Legionowo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Legionovia Legionowo 2–0 SKRA Częstochowa

Legionovia Legionowo beat SKRA Częstochowa 2-0 in II Liga - East on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.