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SKRA Częstochowa vs Lech Poznań II — II Liga - East 2019

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
11/30/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 20Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa47%
×Draw26%
Lech Poznań II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.46
Lech Poznań II
1.04

SKRA Częstochowa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 86 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.37
Lech Poznań II
1.14

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.95
Lech Poznań II
1.55

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Lech Poznań II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
73%
SKRA Częstochowa or Lech Poznań II
74%
Draw or Lech Poznań II
53%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
23%
Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
77%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
43%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
18%
Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
65%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
28%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
63%
Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Lech Poznań II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lech Poznań II attack 1.14 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
47%
level
26%
Lech Poznań II scores more
27%

SKRA Częstochowa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: SKRA Częstochowa 0–0 Lech Poznań II

SKRA Częstochowa and Lech Poznań II drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.