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Lech Poznań II vs SKRA Częstochowa — II Liga - East 2019

Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
11/4/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 11Stadion Amiki Wronki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Lech Poznań II43%
×Draw25%
SKRA Częstochowa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznań II
1.50
SKRA Częstochowa
1.27

Lech Poznań II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 61 away

creates per match

Lech Poznań II
1.35
SKRA Częstochowa
1.05

allows per match

Lech Poznań II
1.49
SKRA Częstochowa
1.66

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw
68%
Lech Poznań II or SKRA Częstochowa
75%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
57%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
21%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
78%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
44%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
19%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
72%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
36%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
57%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more
43%
level
25%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
32%

Lech Poznań II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lech Poznań II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lech Poznań II vs SKRA Częstochowa

Lech Poznań II beat SKRA Częstochowa 1-0 in II Liga - East on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Amiki Wronki in Wronki.